PGA: Wells Fargo Championship

Cheat Sheet

The last golf blog I wrote was a combination Masters recap and RBC Heritage preview. This was some two weeks ago, which, in the world of professional golf, can be an eternity. Not to worry loyal WWB readers, I can promise you - from the bottom of my heart - that you missed absolutely nothing. RBC was essentially a putting contest filled with random wind gusts and quirky bounces played on a golf course that simply can no longer sufficiently harbor (pardon the pun) the greatest golfers in the world. CT Pan made everything and secured his first PGA Tour win. I’m of fan of CT and am happy for him, but that event just was not a legitimate test of golf.  And then we had last week… the dreaded Zurich Championship at TPC Louisiana. If you play DFS, you noticed that no contests were created for the event. That’s right… a format so bad that not even Draftkings could stomach using it to steal more egregious rake from their customers. Partners stroke play with two rounds of better ball and two rounds of alternate shot.  Throw in an 8-hour rain delay on Thursday leading to minimal live TV coverage and you have a total dud of a golf tournament. To use a line often uttered by the great Christopher Russo, if the event itself was played in my backyard, I’d draw the blinds. Congrats to Ryan Palmer and John Rahm for winning the dopiest event of the year!

On the brighter side of things, the new schedule means there is a major right around the corner. The PGA Championship at Bethpage Black is thankfully just two weeks away. I’ll admit I was wrong about the new schedule. I’m all in on it now for a multitude of reasons. As we’ve already discussed, we are in dire need of a good event after this last lull. But more so than that, the Masters is still fresh in our minds and will provide a ton of added juice into the season’s second major. Normally, by the time the traditional second major, the US Open, rolls around, the Masters is a distant memory. The US Open has to create all new storylines and then hope for a captivating plot to develop. With the new schedule, however, I believe it will feel like we are picking up right where we left off at Augusta. Dispersing the majors in a more balanced way throughout the golf season was an exceptional move. Whoever pulled the trigger on that deserves a raise.

I’m as excited as anyone else for the PGA Championship, especially with it being played an hour from my house, but we have a couple more events to get through first, as this week the tour shifts to Charlotte, NC for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow checked in as the 5th most difficult course on tour last year. It really is a beast of a golf course. In my analysis I’ve determined you need one of two tools to have a chance to play well here. You’d better be able to roll the hell out of it with the flat stick, or you need to be really, really long off the tee.My custom stat model will reflect this viewpoint as will my dfs takes and outrights. Yes, I know I mentioned putting playing a huge role this week and in a few moments you’ll see me endorse Ben An. I admit have a Ben An problem, isn’t that the first step towards recovery?   
    
Hit ‘em straight - Pat

Event: 2019 Wells Fargo Championship

2018 Champion: Jason Day

Field: 156 Players, Top 70 and ties make the cut
When: 7:00am EST, Thursday 5/2

Course: Quail Hollow
Par: 71
Yardage: 7554

Architect(s): George Cobb
Rank: 5/51 in 2018 difficulty (+1.132)
Greens: Bermuda

Targeted Key Stats and Weight: (See graph below)

Screen Shot 2019-05-01 at 7.28.57 AM.png

Custom Stat Model: (Statistics courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club)
CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW FOR COMPLETE SPREADSHEET

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

TAKES:

DFS (DraftKings)

High-End Plays

·       R Mcilroy (11800) - projected ownership 22%

·       J Day (11000) - projected ownership 12%

. R Fowler (10600) - projected ownership 16%

. J Rose (10300) - projected ownership 16%

Middle-Tier Plays

·       T Finau (9300) - projected ownership 24%

·       J Kokrak (8700) - projected ownership 18%

·       C Howell III (8400) - projected ownership 13%

. B An (8300) - projected ownership 21%

. J Vegas (8200) - projected ownership 13%

. A Wise (8100) - projected ownership 15%

Lower-End Plays

. K Mitchell (7800) - projected ownership 19%

. T Mullinax (7500) - projected ownership 12%

. W Clark (7400) - projected ownership 6%

. M Jones (7200) - projected ownership 7%

. O Schniederjans (7000) - projected ownership 5%

. C Ortiz (6900) - projected ownership 2%

 Outright Win Bets

·       J Vegas 60/1

·       K Mitchell 80/1

. W Clark 150/1

PGAPat DiMartinoPat