PGA: Valero Texas Open

Cheat Sheet

Last week’s WGC Match Play was a big time golf tournament; It had it all. First and foremost, the event obviously always boasts a tremendously strong field (the inherent nature of the bracket being comprised of numbers 1-64 in the official world golf rankings accomplishes exactly that). The course was spectacular as well. Austin Country Club is a quirky Pete-Dye masterpiece chock-full of recognizable holes and risk/reward opportunities. The conditions themselves were ever changing and challenging and allowed for us to witness players adjust on the fly. Then there was the ‘mano a mano’ element of match play which peeled back another layer of each player that we rarely get a glimpse at.  And there was certainly no shortage of controversy as Sergio and Frugal Matt went at it in a heated quarter-finals match marred by a 2-inch putt not being conceded. How about drama? Tiger followed up a virtuoso Friday afternoon thrashing of a helpless Patrick Cantlay with a gritty win over peak form Rory. Not only that, but we got to know Lucas Bjerregaard as he outdueled the GOAT down the stretch on Saturday evening. Really cool event, and happy to see the bulldog Kevin Kisner #gokizgo redeem last year’s runner-up effort with an outright victory. If match play isn’t more mental warfare than anything else, how can you explain his performance in back-to-back years in this event? We need more match play events on the PGA Tour.
      Anyway, I know most of the golf world wants to hit the fast forward button and que The Masters music, but there’s still some more work to be done this week. The boys make the trek from Austin to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. Some players are using this week to prep for Augusta, some are using it as a last ditch effort to punch their tickers and qualify for The Masters. Others are just praying to make the cut, make some cash, and keep their tour cards in good standing.
      It’s a shame the event is smushed right in front of The Masters because the course really is fair, demanding, and seemingly favors no one.  You’ll see what stats I’m honing in on below, but I wanted to talk about another element of golf handicapping – weather. While the splits don’t seem overly dramatic one way or the other this week, it does appear to me that playing late on Thursday and early on Friday will provide players with the best chance to navigate TPC San Antonio in the mildest set of the south-central Texas winds. Even if it’s a one-shot difference, I’d rather play guys who have that edge built in. Some of the superstars may have one eye on Augusta as it is, so the last thing I’d want is to play those guys and have them get into a situation where they are grinding to make the cut and against the grain of the favorable weather split.  Enjoy Valero and I’ll see ya all next week at Augusta National.     

Hit ‘em straight - Pat

Event: 2019 Valero Texas Open

2018 Champion: Andrew Landry

Field: 144 players, top 70 and ties make the cut
When: 8:10am EST, Thursday 4/4

Course: TPC San Antonio (oaks course)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7435

Architect(s): Greg Norman
Rank: 12/51 in 2018 difficulty (+.367)
Greens: Bermuda

Targeted Key Stats and Weight: (See graph below)

Screen Shot 2019-04-03 at 6.56.13 PM.png

Custom Stat Model: (Statistics courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club)
CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW FOR COMPLETE SPREADSHEET

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

TAKES:

DFS (DraftKings)

Core: (Players to use and build around in the majority of lineups)

·       L Glover (9300)

·       B An (9200)

. A Ancer (8900)

Sleepers: (Players with low ownership projections who offer significant upside)

·       J Luiten (8500)

·       L Donald (7300)

·       N Taylor (7200)

·       S Scheffler (6900)

 Outright Win Bets

·       L Glover 30/1

·       B An 30/1

. A Ancer 35/1

. J Luiten 50/1

PGAPat DiMartinoPat