PGA: Memorial Tournament

Last weekend at Colonial was a bit of a throw-back event. Kevin Na secured his third PGA Tour win (first since 2011) with precision and overall execution, not via brute force. I wish more events were played on golf courses that didn’t eliminate the shorter players in the field. There are some extremely talented guys down there, but the modern golf course setup really stacks the deck against them. I’d rather see more of the guys having the best week finding their way to the winner’s circle rather than just the best players in general assuming their positions atop the leaderboard by default.

Off to Dublin, Ohio and Jack’s place for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village. The players will be greeted by generous fairways, penal rough, and lightning fast bentgrass greens as many of the world rankings’ upper echelon will be making their first start since the PGA Championship. You will see the key stats I’m focusing on this week in the chart below, as well as a rolling report combining the entire custom stat model. I ran some other reports looking into guys who are trending the right way on ‘lightning fast’ greens in hopes of catching a hot putter. Crunching this data together left me with my DFS takes and outright win bets that you can also find below.            
    
Hit ‘em straight - Pat

Event: 2019 Memorial Tournament

2018 Champion: Bryson DeChambeau

Field: 122 Players, Top 70 and ties make the cut
When: 7:20am EST, Thursday 5/30

Course: Muirfield Village, Dublin Ohio
Par: 72
Yardage: 7392

Architect(s): Jack Nicklaus
Rank: 30/51 in 2018 difficulty (-.603)
Greens: Bent

Targeted Key Stats and Weight: (See graph below)

Screen Shot 2019-05-29 at 10.37.14 AM.png

Custom Stat Model: (Statistics courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club)
CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW FOR COMPLETE SPREADSHEET

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

TAKES:

DFS (DraftKings: Player, Price, Projected Ownership)

Super Elite (10K+)
·       R McIlroy (11500) 20%
·       R Fowler (10600) 12%

Upper Tier (9k - 9.9K)
·       M Kuchar (9400) 25%
·       H Matsuyama (9100) 19%

Middle Tier (7.5k - 8.9k)
. E Grillo (7900) 16%
. K Stanley (7800) 8%
. B Horschel (7700) 7%
. T Hatton (7700) 7%

Lower Tier (<7.5k)
. K Streelman (7400) 8%
. B An (7400) 14%
. J Niemann (7300) 6%
. A Hadwin (7100) 3%
. N Watney (6700) 4%
. R Armour (6100) 2%
 


Outright Win Bets (Draftkings Sportsbook: Player, Win Odds)

·       R Fowler 20/1
·       E Grillo 50/1
. T Hatton 60/1
. B Horschel 70/1
. B An 115/1

PGAPat DiMartinoPat