PGA: AT&T Byron Nelson

Cheat Sheet

Congratulations to Max Homa on a super impressive first career PGA Tour win last week at Quail Hollow in Charlotte. Sporting just 3 top 10’s in his first 68 PGA Tour starts, the 28-year-old embraced the moment and held off a motley leaderboard by holing some key putts down the stretch allowing him to hang on to a comfortable working margin.

If Homa is indeed the lead story from last week, another Sunday backpedal from Rory isn’t too far behind. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Rory McIlroy - and there is little doubt, that in a vacuum, he’s the best player in the world. But to me, Rory lacks an innate winning instinct that can be found in just about any athlete topping their respective sport. I truly believe he’d benefit from having a more professional, alpha caddie. His current caddie, Harry Diamond, is his best friend. What Rory needs is for someone to push him. For someone to call him out, challenge him, make him grind over both strategy and execution.  Rory is a generational talent that just wants to be one of the guys.  He doesn’t need ‘one of the guys’ on his bag.

The last stop before the PGA Championship is the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, Texas. I know it’s a very different game now, and a vastly different tour, but I think it would be a disservice to fail to point out just how great Byron Nelson was. His 1945 season was perhaps the greatest in the history of the game. Nelson averaged just north of 68 in the summer of ‘45 and won 18 of 35 events including 11 in a row. I don’t think Lord Byron lacked that winning instinct.

Trinity Forest figures to play a little longer and more difficult than it did last year based on a very wet winter and spring in the Dallas area. Scores will still be low, but with a lack of roll in the fairways, the guys will likely have to earn it as wedge and short iron opportunities will be less abundant this go around. Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as it’s quite possible that the Early/Late draw may be advantageous.  Enjoy the Byron Nelson, see ya next week from Bethpage Black and the PGA Championship!       
    
Hit ‘em straight - Pat

Event: 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson

2018 Champion: Aaron Wise

Field: 156 Players, Top 70 and ties make the cut
When: 8:00am EST, Thursday 5/9

Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club
Par: 71
Yardage: 7380

Architect(s): Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw
Rank: 45/51 in 2018 difficulty (-1.582)
Greens: Bermuda

Targeted Key Stats and Weight: (See graph below)

Screen Shot 2019-05-08 at 12.14.32 PM.png

Custom Stat Model: (Statistics courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club)
CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW FOR COMPLETE SPREADSHEET

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

REMEMBER: These models are designed solely to give the user a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and all additional avenues of information when crafting DFS lineups.

TAKES:

DFS (DraftKings: Player, Price, Projected Ownership)

Super Elite (10K+)

·       H Stenson (10,300) - 14%

Upper Tier (9k - 9.9K)

·       A Wise (9400) - 18%
·       R Sabbatini (9000) - 11%

Middle Tier (7.5k - 8.9k)

. R Cabrera Bello (8600) - 22%
. S Piercy (8400) - 15%
. T Pieters (8300) - 10%
. T Oleson (8100) - 8%
. R Palmer (8000) - 15%
. R Knox (8000) - 16%
. S Scheffler (7900) - 10%
. M Jones (7500) - 9%
. D Frittelli (7500) - 12%

Lower Tier (<7.5k)

. B Stuard (7400) - 9%
. H Lebioda (6700) - 10%
. D Ghim (6500) - 2%

 Outright Win Bets (Draftkings Sportsbook: Player, Win Odds)

·       H Stenson 20/1

·       R Sabbatini 40/1

. R Palmer 66/1

PGAPat DiMartinoPat