PGA: Players Championship

Cheat Sheet

A US Open broke out at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Francesco Molinari survived Bay Hill’s thick rough and lightning fast, rock-hard greens en route to his first victory of the 2019 season. Frankie, fresh off an equipment change to Callaway irons, showed no ill effects as he charged up the leaderboard early Sunday afternoon with a sparkling final round 64. Molinari showed us a glimpse of his immense talent combined with an unflappable mental game last year at Carnoustie when he looked Tiger right in the eye and came out victorious. Sunday at Bay Hill had that same feel and sure enough, once again, Molinari came through. 
      Honestly, I’ve never been a big fan of The Players. Architect Pete Dye never meant for TPC Sawgrass to be primed for tournament play in May in fair winds and on burnt out Bermuda grass. That said, the move to March changes everything.
      An event which has turned into a crapshoot in recent years should finally morph into its intended vision as the 5th major. The ryegrass overseed combined with more moisture in the ground, accompanied by a stronger prevailing wind from a different direction should allow for the cream to rise to the top. The conditions being so different make this week very challenging from an analytics standpoint. I’m not looking at any past Players results. It’s just too different of a golf course; softer, longer, and breezier. My strategy this week is to look more at overall form and devise some sort of stat model that incorporates the changes in course condition. You can check out my stat model by clicking on the Excel image below.
    I’m slowly becoming a bigger and bigger fan of the new PGA Tour schedule, and I think this Sunday’s leaderboard will reflect a truer test of golf and feature the game’s greatest players.

Hit ‘em straight - Pat

Event: 2019 Players Championship

2018 Champion: Webb Simpson

Field: 144 Players, Top 70 & Ties Make the Cut
When: 7:10am EST, Thurs 3/14

Course: TPC Sawgrass
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,189

Architect(s): Pete Dye
Rank: 29/51 in 2018 Difficulty (-0.592)
Greens: Bermuda (with overseed)

Targeted Key Stats and Weight:
Dr Dist 15%
GIR Gained 12%
SG OTT 10%
SG ARG 6%
Sand saves 4%
SG Approach 12%
3 putt avoidance 10%
Proximity 6%
Par 4 scoring 7%
Par 5 scoring 8%
Par 3 scoring 5%
Proximity 200+ 5%

Custom Stat Model: (Statistics courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club)
CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW FOR COMPLETE SPREADSHEET

REMEMBER: These models are just for you to get a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and various additional avenues of other sources when crafting DFS lineups.

REMEMBER: These models are just for you to get a feel for which players fit on paper. It’s always important to incorporate game theory, news sources, and various additional avenues of other sources when crafting DFS lineups.

TAKES:

DFS (DraftKings)

Core: (Players to use and build around in the majority of lineups)

·       J Rahm (9500)

·       T Finau (8400)

·       P Casey (7900)

·       S Im (6800)

Sleepers: (Players with low ownership projections who offer significant upside)

·       T Hatton (7300)

·       B Watson (7300)

·       L List (7000)

·       M Wallace (6700)

 Outright Win Bets

·       J Rahm 30/1

·       P Casey 40/1

·       T Finau 50/1

·       M Fitzpatrick 60/1

·       B Watson 70/1

·       M Wallace 80/1

·       S Im 90/1

·       T Hatton 90/1

. Luke List 125/1

PGAPat DiMartinoPat